The Dunning-Kruger Effect
Perhaps my favorite graph is that of the Dunning-Kruger Effect.
The Dunning Kruger Effect occurs, as defined by Google, “when a person's lack of knowledge and skills in a certain area causes them to overestimate their own competence. By contrast, this effect also causes those who excel in a given area to think the task is simple for everyone, and underestimate their relative abilities as well.”
What this translates to is that at the beginning of learning a new skill people tend to overestimate how good they are at that skill, interestingly enough people who are actually experts are less confident than the novices and underestimate the complexity of the tasks they are able to complete.
The Dunning-Kruger effect is a shining example of one of the infamous cognitive biases that we possess.
So why am I bringing this up?
The Dunning-Kruger Effect showcases the most dangerous place to be.
On the graph of The Dunning-Kruger Effect, you will see the area that is the biggest killer of success.
It is colloquially called “The Valley of Despair.”
Not a fun name and not a fun place to be.
So, what is The Valley?
Image courtesy of William Poundstone
The Valley is the point in your journey where your confidence is decimated, you realize just how clueless you are, and feel hopeless.
It is the point where most people give up.
The Valley usually catches you by surprise.
It is right when you think that you have everything planned out, and all that is left to do is figure out what brand of Champagne you will get to celebrate how much of a genius you are.
I can confirm that the Valley is a real place, because I, along with most other entrepreneurs have been there.
And for anyone there now, or who is going to be there soon I have 3 pieces of advice.
If you haven’t fallen yet, anticipate the fall. The damage that the valley does is typically due to the fall. If you know the fall is coming you can brace for it. Like a pilot telling the passengers in the cabin to “brace for impact,” it doesn’t change the fact that they are going to crash, but it allows them to be at least prepared for what is to come.
The Valley is natural. Don’t be too hard on yourself when you get to the Valley. The Valley is a part of everyone’s journey. The goal is to take the “hard-knock” lessons The Valley teaches you to heart and use them to power you through to the other side.
Don’t go through The Valley alone. Have you ever ventured through the mountains of Tibet by yourself? No, you haven’t (and neither have I). What do you think would happen if you did venture there by yourself? Chances are you wouldn’t make it. The Valley is the same way. You need to enlist the help of others that have been through The Valley. The help can come in various shapes and sizes, such as other founders, relevant Facebook Groups, and podcasts/blogs on the topic. The point is that if you go at it completely on your own you are going to struggle more than you need to.
On a parting note, I do want to address the beauty of The Valley.
The Valley is what separates the winners from the losers, the serious individuals from the hobbyists. On the other end of The Valley is the real start of the game.
The Valley stands as a natural barrier that protects the beauty of the prize that lies on the other side.
Moiz Ali, the founder of Native Deoderant (which he sold for $100+ million), has a quote from when he first started Native that perfectly encapsulates the best way to approach the Dunning-Kruger Effect.
“I don’t know anything about deodorant, but in six months, I’m going to know everything there is to know” – Moiz Ali
So go out, and embrace the beauty of The Valley.