Losing Your Soul In Las Vegas
This past weekend, I went to Las Vegas, and to put it succinctly, Lady Luck was not on my side. Turns out Vegas is designed to make you lose your money; who would’ve thought? As I sat there and saw my small stack of chips evaporate with every toss of the die, I thought about the irony of being someone who hates gambling, yet on the surface takes so much risk. I am many things, but I am not a gambling man in the traditional sense. The concept of betting on a chance-based game where the house always has an edge does not seem like a winning proposition.
Risk is a part of life. How you go about whether or not to take a risk should come down to a few main factors.
Reversibility. If you take this risk, will it irreversibly impact your life?
Upside. If the risk pans out, what are the low, medium, and best-case scenarios?
Downside. If the risk does not pan out, what are the low, medium, and worst-case scenarios?
Unique Advantage. What about your skill set makes you more likely to have a positive outcome?
When you put this all together, the best risks are where they are largely reversible (low cost or time commitment), huge upside, low downside (asymmetrical odds), and where your unique skill set makes you more likely than the average person to win. As you can probably guess, this type of risk isn’t found in casinos. If you are looking for opportunities in life, you should keep your eyes peeled for opportunities that fit this criteria. This formula is quite literally the blueprint.
As an overall, you should always bet on yourself.
P.S. I only lost $150 in Vegas, so thankfully my life isn’t ruined.
The unique advantage point is the most underrated part of this framework imo. Most people skip straight to upside/downside math but forget to ask if theyre even positioned to win in the first place. Casinos are the perfect example since no amount of bankroll management fixes a game with negative expected value. I apply similar logic to career moves and side projects. Spent years chasing opportunities I wasnt uniquely suited for before realizing that.